ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF RISK AND DECISION MAKING UNDER AGRICULTURAL PLANNING.

Risk plays an important part affecting farmers decisions and
agricultural planners, so that it affects to a great extend agricultural planning
models which deal with cropping patterns.
The paper aimed to evaluate the probable risk cost during the fifth
plan period (2002/03 - 2006107) , which evaluated by about 22.56%, 20.68%,
18.01 % , 17.21 % and 20.21 % , respectively, from the annual gross margin.
The study concluded to that highly risk affected crops during this
period are rice, wheat, peanut sesame, and summer and nili vegetables. The
paper proposed using semi - compulsory insurance policy, taking into
consideration reviewing and determining the field crops that facing different
risks, and accompanied by increased risk value in its production periodically
each 3 years.
This , beside concentration of utilizing economic agricultural policies
tools to maximize economic efficiency, and to limit loss in agricultural
resources and enhancing farm prices for cereals, oil crops and cotton.