EI-Batran,, M., Ata, S. (2002). ESTIMATING GENERAL EQUILIB IUM MODEL ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL IN EGYPT. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, 27(9), 5965-5983. doi: 10.21608/jaess.2002.256834
M. M. EI-Batran,; Sahra K. Ata. "ESTIMATING GENERAL EQUILIB IUM MODEL ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL IN EGYPT". Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, 27, 9, 2002, 5965-5983. doi: 10.21608/jaess.2002.256834
EI-Batran,, M., Ata, S. (2002). 'ESTIMATING GENERAL EQUILIB IUM MODEL ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL IN EGYPT', Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, 27(9), pp. 5965-5983. doi: 10.21608/jaess.2002.256834
EI-Batran,, M., Ata, S. ESTIMATING GENERAL EQUILIB IUM MODEL ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL IN EGYPT. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, 2002; 27(9): 5965-5983. doi: 10.21608/jaess.2002.256834
ESTIMATING GENERAL EQUILIB IUM MODEL ON THE NATIONAL LEVEL IN EGYPT
Department of Agricultural Economics Faculty of Agriculture - Cairo University
Abstract
Fiscal and Monetary Policies play important role in moti~alion the most of economic activities and economic development in Egypt, so the objective of the study is to explore the role of economic variables in performance and efficiency of the tools of these two polices, so the General Equilibrium Madelon National Level in Egypt was estimated, the study applied liverpool model by Simultaneous Equali<:ms System. according to Jerry Hausman method of Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML)
Also the study used simple linear trend regression for achieving the objective, and some used the tests of detecting some econometric problems, i.e., Autocorrelation ,i.e., "Box-Pierce-Ljung Test and Breusch-Pagan Test" Heteroscedasticity, "Engel Test", Non-Normality ot the error ,i.e., "Jarque- Bera Test" and Multicollinearity. On the other hand Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) was applied to maximize the Log Likelihood Function (LLF1, due to Beacn-Mackinnon method. Engel's autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity method (ARCH), and Extended Box-Cox Regression method, and Ordinary Ridge Regression. Finally the data were collected from different sources to cover the period (1980-2000).
Results of the study were consistent with the economic theory, and showed the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a result of the effect of government expenditure on increasing gross national product, also the increasing in taxes led to decreasing the consumption. One the other hand monetary policy has no effect as a result to inelastic and the weakness of money demand and investment with respect to interest rate.
Recommendations of the study are concerning applying expanded monetary policy to reflect increasing money supply and decreasing interest rate. these changes will lead to increasing gross domestic product. labor, and consumption. Also expanding fiscal polley will reflect decreasing taxes.
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